GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Apr 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks.
* The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar.
* Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the IMF it will provide further financing to Pakistan.
* The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers met in Beijing and discussed resuming flights.
* Iran appointed its first ambassador to the UAE since 2016, while MBZ spoke with Israel’s PM.
* Qatar’s non-oil GDP surged by 9.9% y/y in Q4 during the World Cup and rose by 6.8% for 2022 overall.
* Qatar’s population moved back above 3m in March for the first time since October, up 6.3% y/y.
* QatarEnergy took a 25% stake in Total’s energy projects in Iraq, which are finally moving forward.
* S&P gave Oman a positive rating outlook due to lower debt currently and higher oil assumptions.
* Both the opposition and government boycotted the first session of Kuwait’s restored 2020 Assembly.
* Bahrain’s draft two-year budget sees the deficit widening to -3% of GDP in 2023.
* Bahrain issued $2bn in bonds and sukuk, in its first debt sale since 2021.
* Databank updates: Bahrain budget, Qatar Q4 GDP, PMIs, Qatar population, OPEC+ targets, World Bank, Oman and Saudi forecasts.

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