GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Oman, Dubai partly repays 2009 bailout, GCC-Pakistan FTA inked, Bahrainis killed on Saudi-Yemen border

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 29 Sep 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* The GCC inked its first FTA since 2009, with Pakistan. Others are pending with the UK, EU and China.
* The Kuwait-Iraq maritime border spat prevented a meeting of GCC foreign ministers with Iraq and Iran at the UN.
* Bahraini soldiers patrolling the Saudi-Yemen border were killed by a Houthi drone.
* The Saudi current surplus remained at 6% of GDP in Q2 but FDI inflows fell to just 0.6%.
* Lucid Group began small-scale production of EVs at its plant in Saudi Arabia.
* An Israeli minister attended a UN event in Riyadh on the same day as the first Saudi delegation to Palestine since 1967.
* Dubai made an early repayment of over a quarter of its $20bn of 2009 bailout loans, along with sukuks and bank loans.
* Qatar’s Q2 current surplus eased to 16% of GDP, and there were substantial capital account flows, both inwards and outwards.
* Qatar signed a $4bn agreement for another 17 LNG carriers from Korea.
* Kuwait’s new urban masterplan envisages a 25% increase in population by 2040 despite talk of slashing expat numbers.
* Oman’s tourist arrivals in August were strong, 11% above the 2019 level.
* Fitch upgraded Oman to BB+ on account of debt reduction, spending restraint and higher oil price forecasts.
* Bahrain raised its debt ceiling to $42.5bn.
* Databank updates: Saudi & Qatar BoP; forecasts for UAE, Abu Dhabi & Oman; Oman tourism.

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