GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades Qatar, Dubai merges developers, PIF eyes Saudia, US Gaza resolution vetoed

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 22 Mar 2024 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The US’s draft UN resolution calling for (but not “demanding”) an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by China and Russia.
* Ceasefire talks continue in Qatar, with differences over Palestinian prisoners and repopulating northern Gaza.
* Turkey and the GCC agreed to launch FTA negotiations, while the UAE is contemplating a bilateral deal with the EU due to long-stalled talks with the GCC.
* S&P affirmed Saudi Arabia but there was a slight deterioration in the snapshot score due to rising debt.
* PIF is reportedly considering acquiring Saudia and possibly merging it with the new Riyadh Air.
* Moody’s revised up its GDP growth forecasts for Abu Dhabi but slightly cut its fiscal surplus forecasts.
* Adnoc signed a preliminary 15-year LNG deal with Germany’s SEFE.
* S&P assigned a positive outlook to ADCB because of its improving asset quality.
* Dubai is merging developers Nakheel and Meydan and transferring them from ICD to Dubai Holding.
* Fitch upgraded Qatar to AA and expects its budget to remain in surplus into the 2030s.
* Qatar’s hydrocarbon output rebounded in December and January, after a dip due to maintenance.
* Fitch expects Kuwait to pass a liquidity law and begin issuing debt in 2025/26 to finance a -10% of GDP deficit.
* Proposed changes to Kuwait’s public salary scales could boost expenditure by about 4%.
* Oman is planning IPOs including logistics firm Asyad Group and two OQ hydrocarbon units.
* The US approved the sale of $2bn in tanks to Bahrain, equivalent to its annual deficit.
* Databank updates: Forecasts for Qatar, Kuwait, KSA, UAE & Abu Dhabi; Inflation for Qatar, Oman, Kuwait & Dubai. Monthly series for Oman and Qatar.

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