GULF WEEKLY: Gulf mirrors Fed hike, UAE and Qatar surpluses in Q3, strong Saudi Q3 growth

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 Dec 2022 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil rebounds partially as IEA lifts 2023 demand forecast.
* All Gulf states bar Kuwait mirrored the Fed’s 50bp hike.
* China faced criticism from long-time ally Iran for appearing to favor Gulf states.
* Saudi non-oil GDP continued to grow strongly, by 5.3%, led by manufacturing.
* New Saudi-Chinese investment deals were valued at $50bn by the investment minister.
* Moody’s new rating methodology bolstered its scorecard-implied rating for Saudi Arabia.
* The UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus totalled 10% of GDP in the first three quarters.
* Dubai’s GDP grew by 4.6% y/y in the first three quarters, led by the transport and tourism rebound.
* Qatar’s fiscal surplus was 12% of GDP in the first three quarters.
* Qatar denied allegations of bribing MEPs, which partly overshadowed a well-run World Cup.
* S&P hiked forecasts for Kuwait and does not see it issuing bonds until 2025.
* Bahrain’s current account surplus remained historically strong at over 14% of GDP in Q3.
* Databank updates: Qatar & UAE fiscal, Saudi & Dubai GDP, Bahrain BoP, Saudi & Dubai inflation.

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