GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises but demand forecasts diverge, Qatar and Bahrain appoint ambassadors, Saudi and Kuwait GDP
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Brent crude rebounded to about $83, above its level before the recent OPEC+ meeting.
* The gap between IEA and OPEC demand forecasts widened to 1.3m b/d this year and 5.6m in 2029.
* There was confusion about the positions of Hamas and Israel on the US-backed ceasefire plan.
* Iran approved presidential candidates, five hardliners led by Qalibaf, and one moderate, Pezeshkian.
* Qatar and Bahrain appointed ambassadors for the first time since 2017, cementing reconciliation.
* Saudi Q1 GDP was led by trade & hospitality, while manufacturing narrowly returned to growth.
* The IMF Saudi Article IV mission cut some forecasts but praised policies, including recalibrating project spending.
* CEER awarded Hyundai a $2.2bn contract for EV parts, and ACWA Power plans a $1.9bn rights issue to finance renewables.
* The UAE Central Bank hiked its non-oil growth forecast to 5.4% in 2024-5 from 4.7% previously.
* Adnoc awarded $5.5bn of contracts for Ruwais LNG, and Aramco signed an LNG HoA with NextDecade.
* Fitch upgraded TAQA to AA to equalize with Abu Dhabi’s rating, as it is mainly owned by ADQ.
* There has been a surge in family offices setting up in the UAE, and more hedge funds are also coming.
* Qatari contractors such as Redco and Power International are winning major contracts in KSA.
* Oman saw a small monthly deficit in April, partly due to a decline in income tax receipts.
* Kuwait’s non-oil GDP contracted by -2.9% in 2023, weighed down by a -17% slump in manufacturing.
* A fire in a residential building killed 49 migrants in Kuwait, and a souq fire in Bahrain killed 3.
* Databank updates: Saudi and Kuwait GDP, Oman fiscal, OPEC oil, Forecasts for Kuwait, UAE, Saudi and RAK.
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