GULF WEEKLY: IMF/WB revise down GCC forecasts, Adnoc signs Chinese LNG contracts, S&P puts Bahrain on Negative outlook

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 25 Apr 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Chatter that OPEC+ might accelerate its taper because of Kazakh overproduction weighed on oil.
* There were some positive vibes regarding US-Iran talks, which will now involve a technical group.
* The IMF and World Bank revised down many GCC forecasts, largely due to lower oil assumptions.
* Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar on May 13-16.
* Ajman Bank sold a $500m sukuk, and issuance is expected from PIF, Masdar, Abu Dhabi Ports, Sobha and Omniyat.
* During Modi’s visit to Jeddah, there was discussion of Saudi investment in two Indian oil refineries.
* Adnoc signed about 2.3m t/yr in LNG contracts with three Chinese companies.
* Kuwait is in discussions to convert its longstanding $4bn deposit in Egypt’s central bank into equity.
* Oman’s first green hydrogen project in Duqm received its first tranche of financing.
* S&P placed Bahrain on a Negative outlook and expects debt to increase by $17bn in 2025-28.
* Syria participated in the IMF/WB Spring Meetings, and its World Bank arrears were paid by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
* The World Food Programme has run out of supplies in Gaza after eight weeks of siege.
* Databank updates: IMF/WB forecasts; S&P Bahrain forecasts; inflation for Dubai, Kuwait and Oman.

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