GULF WEEKLY: Iran talks begin, IMF forecasts brighten, but Covid wave worsens
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* The first week of US-Iran indirect nuclear talks in Vienna seemed to make progress.
* Coronavirus cases rose sharply in most Gulf states, and Qatar entered a new lockdown.
* The IMF’s 2021 forecast increased GCC growth to 2.7% and it halved the deficit to -3.0% of GDP.
* PMIs picked up strongly in Qatar and UAE but weakened in Saudi.
* Dubai visitor numbers were down by -21% m/m in February as the winter party season comes to an end.
* The UAE appointed a new central bank governor, Khaled al-Tameemi.
* Qatar’s population is down by -5.5% y/y, the biggest decline on record.
* Nearly half the Kuwaiti MPs called for the speaker to resign over suspending minister grillings.
* S&P affirmed Oman and sees a deficit of just -4.4% of GDP this year.
* Oman announced OR100m in social protection initiatives, including modest VAT exceptions.
* There is renewed talk about an IPO for Oman’s OQ holding company.
* Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rose by 3.3% q/q in Q4, but this was largely due to a few sectors, and others remain weak.
* We don’t think that a coup was planned in Jordan or that Gulf states want to destabilize it.
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