​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s emir mourned, Q2 GDP pain for Saudi & Bahrain, Oman bond delayed

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 02 Oct 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include:

* Sheikh Nawaf became Kuwaiti emir, and the term of parliament was extended until October 20.
* Speculation mounts about when a crown prince will be named, and who it will be.
* Q2 GDP results showed non-oil declines of -11.5% y/y in Bahrain and -8.2% in Saudi.
* Saudi now forecasts a deficit of -12% of GDP and budgets higher spending. Its 2021-22 projections have barely changed from a year ago, which seems implausible.
* We analyze a raft of new Saudi data: BoP, labor force, exports, FX reserves.
* Saudi claims to have dismantled an Iranian-linked terrorist cell.
* Democracy for the Arab World Now, an NGO planned by Khashoggi, has launched.
* Qatar awarded a major contract for its North Field East LNG project (startup end-2025).
* Oman delayed an anticipated bond issuance, and possibly also a final VAT law announcement.
* Lebanon’s prime minister resigned but the country agreed to border demarcation talks with Israel.
* UN-mediated Libya talks in Egypt appeared to make modest progress, and a major prisoner exchange was agreed in Yemen.

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