GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait suspends parliament, Emirates makes record profit, Moody’s hikes Bahrain deficit, UAE sends $14bn to Egypt
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* OPEC has shifted its core unit of analysis in its oil market reports to OPEC+ for the first time.
* Half of Rafah’s population has been displaced, and Israel’s cabinet argued over postwar planning.
* UK-GCC free trade talks continued but Saudi import concerns are threatening a deal with China.
* PIF merged two of its major entertainment subsidiaries, Qiddiya and SEVEN.
* Inflation continued to diverge between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which has much higher growth in rents.
* Mubadala grew assets by 9.5% in 2023 to $302bn and deployed $24bn in new investments.
* Emirates Airline achieved record profits of $4.7bn, up by nearly two-thirds.
* The UAE transferred $14bn to Egypt, the balance of its investment in Ras El-Hekma.
* Qatar’s detailed Q3 GDP data showed a surge in hospitality (13%) but weak construction (-3.0%).
* Kuwait’s Amir suspended parliament for up to four years and plans to revise the constitution.
* The change may lead to a debt law and improved administration but probably not fiscal reforms.
* Oman’s spending fell by -7% y/y in Q1, and it achieved a 1.5% of GDP surplus. An IMF mission praised Oman’s reforms.
* Oman’s Sultan made a return visit to Kuwait, and various MoUs were signed, including for investment.
* OPEC’s reports now include monthly oil data for Bahrain, which recovered in April after a weak Q1.
* Moody’s doubled its 2023 deficit estimate for Bahrain to -11% of GDP and sees debt rising to 140%.
* The IMF’s Article IV report on Iraq warned that without reform there is a high risk of stressed debt.
* Databank updates: Qatar GDP, Oman fiscal, Inflation for Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Oman, KSA; forecasts for Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain; monthly oil.
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