GULF WEEKLY: New oil cuts and austerity as coronavirus trends diverge

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 15 May 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include:

* Oil gained slightly as Saudi announced an extra 1m b/d cut in June and others followed.
* Coronavirus growth slowed in Saudi and UAE but accelerated elsewhere, especially Kuwait.
* Saudi is tripling the VAT to 15% and implementing additional spending cuts.
* Aramco will pay a Q1 dividend exceeding its income and may renegotiate the SABIC deal.
* The UAE won’t follow on a VAT increase, and Dubai is considering further stimulus.
* S&P affirmed Qatar at AA- (Stable) but see significantly higher debt levels.
* Mubadala issued $4bn and Equate $1.6bn, in the first SWF and corporate issuances since the crisis.
* Oman announced an additional 5% spending cut, and spending was down -5.7% YTD in February.
* S&P published an analysis of how Oman could meet $50bn in financing needs in 2020-23.
* Iran’s military suffered another embarrassing friendly fire incident during a missile test.

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