GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on deal hopes, Saudi companies postpone IPOs, Oman oil output up 10%

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 12 Jun 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Trump claimed yet again that an Iran deal is imminent; betting markets see a 50% chance by end-June, and Brent dropped to $86, the lowest since early March.
* If there is a breakthrough, with talk of a potential signing this weekend, Qatari mediation on Wednesday played a role.
* This came after escalation, including a US helicopter being shot down and the first Israel-Iran clashes since April.
* Iran targeted Kuwait and Bahrain again. The US enforced its blockade, killing three Indian sailors.
* OPEC+ announced more nominal tapering, but few members of the cartel increased output in May.
* Saudi Q1 GDP growth of 3.0% was led by finance (5.4%), one of the few sectors that accelerated during the quarter.
* Two Saudi companies, contractor MGC and developer Arabian Dyar, postponed planned IPOs.
* Emaar announced a $54bn 150k housing-unit development in Dubai, amid mixed market signals.
* Qatar hotel occupancy fell to 44% in April, the lowest on record, with arrivals down by about -80%.
* KPC’s CEO said Kuwait could restore 80% of output within a month of Hormuz reopening.
* Kuwait shortlisted bidders for its $7.5bn pipeline lease/leaseback deal.
* OPEC data showed that Oman’s production was 10% above quota in April and May.
* Oman’s Q1 banking data showed strong q/q growth in deposits and credit to the private sector.
* OPEC revised down Bahrain’s oil production estimates; it averaged just 49k b/d in the last three months.
* Tamkeen launched an emergency grants program to support war-hit Bahraini companies.
* Databank updates: Saudi GDP, OPEC oil data, Saudi manufacturing.

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