GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on recession fears, Saudi hikes spending and bids for World Cup, Q2 non-oil GDP surges in Abu Dhabi but not Bahrain

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Oct 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil plummeted by over 10% because of worries about the global economy.
* Saudi Arabia hiked its spending plans sharply and now sees deficits of -2% of GDP in 2023-26.
* JP Morgan is considering including Saudi sukuk in its local currency government bond index.
* Saudi Arabia announced its bid for the 2034 World Cup and is currently the sole bidder.
* Abu Dhabi’s real non-oil GDP surged by 12% y/y in Q2, led by finance, up 30%.
* Adnoc’s oil capacity has reportedly risen to 4.65m, 61% above the UAE’s current OPEC+ quota.
* ADQ is in talks to finance a $3bn railway link in Turkey over the Bosphorous.
* Qatar’s population hit a new record, up 2.4% y/y, surpassing the peak ahead of the World Cup.
* S&P upgraded Oman to BB+ and expects surpluses through 2026 and a fall in debt to 31% of GDP.
* Bahrain’s non-oil GDP growth was weak at 2.0% in Q2, with weak construction and manufacturing.
* Bahrain appointed a former BNP banker, Khalid Humaidan, as central bank governor.
* Moody’s downgraded Egypt to Caa1, even though it expects loans from the GCC to roll over.
* Turkey’s energy minister said the oil pipeline from Iraq, closed for 7 months, is to reopen next week.
* Databank updates: Saudi budget, Abu Dhabi & Bahrain GDP, Bahrain BoP, World Bank forecasts

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