GULF WEEKLY: Oil market shrugs off OPEC+ and Iran rumors, Qatar has strong Q1 surplus, opposition wins another Kuwait election, PGA and LIV Gulf merge
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* The oil market shrugged off the Saudi 1m b/d July cuts and the extension of OPEC+ into 2024.
* Reports of resumed US-Iran talks and a possible interim deal briefly spooked the oil market.
* Saudi non-oil GDP grew by 4.6% in Q1, led by health, education, transport, trade and hospitality.
* Gulf PMIs remained strong, dipping to 58.5 in KSA and 55.5 in UAE but rising to 55.6 in Qatar.
* The IMF completed its Article IV mission to Saudi Arabia, noting sizable one-off spending in 2022.
* Neom awarded $5.6bn in PPP projects to build housing for 95,000 workers.
* Blinken visited Saudi Arabia and pitched normalization with Israel, which remains unlikely.
* PIF merged its LIV Golf with the PGA Tour and took over 4 local football clubs, but lost Messi.
* CBD sold $500m in debut green bonds, and a similar issuance is pending from Masdar.
* Qatar’s spending fell after the World Cup, and it achieved a 10% of GDP fiscal surplus in Q1.
* Qatar reportedly accepted lower pricing terms for its LNG contract with Bangladesh.
* Qatar is close to investing $1.3bn in Vodafone Egypt, which would help meet Egypt’s asset sale goals.
* Kuwait’s election further increased the opposition/reformist majority in the Assembly.
* Bahrain’s two-year budget was approved with higher spending estimates than the draft.
* The IMF’s Jihad Azour was proposed as a compromise candidate for Lebanon’s presidency.
* Databank updates: Saudi GDP, Qatar and Oman fiscal, Bahrain Budget, PMIs, AMF forecasts etc.
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