GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises despite Iranian surge, Qatar has Q2 fiscal surplus, Qatar’s GDP strong in Q1 (bar construction), Bahrain prison hunger strike continues

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 01 Sep 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent crude rose to $88, despite a surge in Iranian output, on expectations of longer Saudi cuts.
* Another Saudi gigaproject was announced, Marafy, a waterfront redevelopment in Jeddah.
* The Saudi industry minister visited Turkey, and the UAE-Turkey CEPA came into force.
* Palestinian demands for Saudi-Israel normalization are reportedly modest, but it’s still unlikely.
* The UAE initiated talks on a 6th CEPA trade deal, with New Zealand.
* The stalled giant Dubai Creek Tower project is being restarted.
* Qatar’s fiscal surplus narrowed to (a still solid) 5% of GDP in Q2 on an unexpected rise in spending.
* Qatar’s construction GDP contracted by -12.5% y/y in Q1, post World-Cup, but the rest of its non-oil GDP grew by 5.7%.
* KIO in London celebrated its 70th anniversary and manages a third of Kuwait’s sovereign wealth.
* Oman LNG secured a new 10-year supply contract with Shell and has deals for 70% of its output over a decade.
* The hunger strike in Bahrain’s Jaw prison entered a 4th week and drew international attention.
* Lebanon’s interim central bank governor said no more deficit financing will be provided.
* Libya’s foreign minister was suspended and fled the country after meeting her Israeli counterpart.
* Databank updates: Qatar Q1 GDP and Q2 fiscal.

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