GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on US strike threat, Kuwait issues bonds, UAE leads UN Sec'y General race

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 23 Oct 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The US and Israel are reportedly considering renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms.
* Iran threatened it would respond with attacks on Gulf infrastructure. Brent crude has risen to $114.
* The Houthis tightened their encirclement of Taiz and killed four in strikes on Saudi Arabia.
* The UAE may rejoin the war in Yemen, following a visit to Abu Dhabi by the Saudi defense minister.
* Oil transits through Hormuz seem to have rebounded, despite more attacks on shipping this week.
* The IMF sees non-oil GDP contracting by -0.8% in the GCC this year, led by Bahrain (-5.6%).
* Riyadh airport reopened, a week after serious Houthi strikes, but flights remain limited.
* Saudi Arabia postponed FII and other major conferences and sporting events.
* Dubai’s fiscal balance narrowed to 2.8% of GDP in H1, and its GDP declined by -6.7% in Q2.
* UAE inflation surged to 6.5% in June, even higher than Dubai’s, led by transport (up 19%).
* Moody’s narrowed its Sharjah deficit projection to a 10-year low of -2.5% of GDP on land revenue.
* Fitch revised up its GDP projection for RAK, now seeing 1.5% growth vs -1.8% contraction before.
* MGX is in talks to lead a final pre-IPO funding round for OpenAI, which will also use UAE compute.
* The UAE’s Lana Nusseibeh entered the contest for UN Secretary-General as the frontrunner.
* QatarEnergy contracted 4m t/yr of US LNG from Cheniere and is in talks with Venture Global.
* Kuwait issued $3.25bn in bonds, in tranches of 3 years (+75bp) and 10 years (+105bp).
* British greentech firm Yamna announced plans to invest over £1bn in a data center in Salalah.
* Bahrain’s FX reserves rebounded to $2.3bn in September, drawing about $1.7bn on the UAE swap.
* Databank updates: Dubai fiscal and GDP, UAE inflation, forecasts for Sharjah, RAK and GCC. Bahrain FX.

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