GULF WEEKLY: Oil slips further, rates hiked, PMIs show strong non-oil growth, Kuwait sets election date

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 May 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent crude is down about -$5 this week to $75 and touched a mid-week low of $71.
* All Gulf states except Kuwait mirrored the Fed’s 25bp rate hike.
* The IMF sharply lifted its fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait but lowered them further for UAE and Qatar. The forecasts predated the latest OPEC+ cuts.
* PMIs rose in Saudi Arabia (to 59.6), the UAE (56.6) and Qatar (54.4), indicating strong non-oil expansion.
* Saudi Arabia awarded a $2bn project to connect Neom’s main city, The Line, with its industrial zone.
* Saudi Arabia continued Sudan mediation and evacuations, notably rescuing dozens of Iranians.
* Emirates and Etihad announced a new partnership, renewing rumors about a possible merger.
* Tourist numbers rose 11% m/m in Qatar in March but dipped by -4% in Dubai.
* Expat worker numbers in Kuwait increased by 10% in 2022 and comprised 95% of the private sector.
* Candidates began to register for Kuwait’s third elections in under three years, on June 6.
* Bahrain-Qatar flights could restart as early as mid-May.
* Databank updates: Forecasts from the IMF (GCC) and Moody’s (Qatar); PMIs and monthly tourism.

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