GULF WEEKLY: Oil supply looks tight in H2, regional reconciliation advances, Fitch positive on Oman, Sinopec invests in Qatar LNG

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Apr 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil rose further as OPEC and IEA monthly reports forecast a 2m b/d supply gap in H2.
* Bahrain and Qatar will re-establish diplomatic relations, a boost to Bahrain’s economy.
* The IMF revised down GCC fiscal forecasts on lower oil assumptions but still sees debt levels falling.
* A prisoner exchange is underway in Yemen after a Saudi delegation held peace talks in Sanaa.
* The UAE confirmed a new loan for Pakistan but Gulf support for Egypt likely requires a devaluation.
* Saudi Arabia unveiled four new special economic zones with tax and regulatory incentives.
* Saudi and Iranian delegations began to prepare for the reopening of their embassies by June.
* Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, ahead of the Arab League summit.
* Dubai tourist numbers in February were 10% above the pre-pandemic record for the month.
* A UAE court rejected South Africa’s extradition request for the Gupta brothers.
* Sinopec bought a 1.25% stake in Qatar’s North Field East project, the first by an end-customer.
* Kuwait’s new cabinet adds Manaf Alhajeri as finance minister and expands Bader al-Mulla’s role.
* Oman’s latest rating improvement was a Positive outlook from Fitch.
* Oman’s Bank Dhofar made a bid for Ahli Bank, which was rejected by its board.
* Bahrain sold $265m in 3-year local bonds and Oman is selling $195m in 5-year local bonds.
* Databank updates: IMF forecasts, Oman Feb fiscal, Saudi inflation, Dubai PMI.

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