GULF WEEKLY: Oil surges on OPEC+ cuts, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns in a day, PIF issues green bonds, Yemen ceasefire ends

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 07 Oct 2022 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil is surging after the dramatic OPEC+ cuts, which could push the market into deficit in November.
* There is fury in the US at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but little retaliatory action seems viable.
* The Yemen ceasefire collapsed after six months, creating the risk of attacks on Saudi and the UAE.
* PMIs declined in UAE, Saudi Arabia and particularly in Qatar, which is nearing a neutral level.
* Saudi released detailed 2022 fiscal projections, including a 5% y/y increase in debt, despite a surplus.
* PIF issued $3bn in green bonds including the region’s first 100-year tenor.
* The UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus rose to 18% of GDP in Q2.
* Qatar’s non-oil growth hit 9.7% in Q2, a seven-year high, driven by construction for the World Cup.
* Qatar’s Q2 current surplus rose to 29% of GDP and it may have repaid a fifth of its foreign debt.
* Qatar expanded its monthly Treasury issuance, adding sukuk and shorter-dated tenors.
* Kuwait announced a cabinet in record time… but it resigned within a day due to criticism from MPs.
* Moody’s lifted Oman to a positive outlook, and S&P affirmed it but improved its debt burden scoring.
* Major protests continued in Iran which, separately, released a US dual national.
* There were last-minute hiccups in a Lebanon-Israel maritime border deal on gasfields.
* Databank update: UAE and Saudi fiscal, Qatar GDP, Saudi & Qatar BoP, PMIs, World Bank forecasts.

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