GULF WEEKLY: Oil up as OPEC+ tapers steadily, rate rises mirror Fed, CIA director visits Saudi

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 May 2022 by Justin Alexander

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Oil rises on Russian oil ban fears, a limited OPEC+ taper and stasis in Iran nuclear talks.
* The NOPEC bill to enable antitrust action against OPEC passed a US Senate committee 17-4.
* Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s 50bp rise, although Kuwait only did 25bp.
* Saudi Arabia’s Q1 flash GDP growth of 9.6% y/y was an 11-year high, led by oil.
* US-Saudi relations could be thawing after the CIA Director visited MBS.
* Retail spending in the UAE was up 23% y/y in Q1 and well above pre-Covid levels.
* Delivery drivers in Dubai staged a rare and successful strike against pay cuts.
* Fitch sees Qatar’s fiscal surplus rising to 16% of GDP this year.
* Qatar is contemplating two further LNG trains (21% of current output) on top of its existing 6-train expansion.
* QIA is contributing $375m to Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter.
* Iran’s president spoke with Kuwait’s emir, and discussions on the Doora gas field are underway.
* Bahrain’s FX reserves dropped sharply and unexpectedly by -23% m/m in March.

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