GULF WEEKLY: Oman and KSA Q1 fiscal outturn, Aramco to boost dividends, Abu Dhabi’s economy grows strongly, Syria will rejoin the Arab League

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 12 May 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The Arab League voted unanimously to readmit Syria, despite misgivings from Qatar.
* The Saudi Q1 flash GDP implied non-oil growth of about 5.5% y/y, the most since 2021.
* Saudi Arabia recorded a -0.3% of GDP deficit in Q1 as spending surged by 29% y/y.
* Aramco announced plans to boost its dividends with a performance-based component.
* The IPOs of Aramco Trading and ADES International will be delayed because of weaker markets.
* Sudan peace talks in Jeddah produced an initial agreement on humanitarian access.
* Abu Dhabi recorded 8.4% non-oil growth in 2022, the most in the GCC, but only 2.9% above 2019.
* The Adnoc Logistics IPO is taking orders next week, and Abu Dhabi raised 14% of global IPOs in Q1.
* S&P sharply revised up its Qatar forecasts on a new oil assumption methodology.
* Kuwait’s current account surplus rose to a 10-year high of 34% of GDP, but capital inflows remained weak.
* Oman’s Q1 fiscal surplus was 4.5% of GDP, the most since 2014, with 12% core spending growth.
* Egypt suffered a downgrade from Fitch and a negative watch from Moody’s as asset sales stall.
* Databank updates: Saudi & Oman Q1 fiscal, Saudi Q1 GDP, Abu Dhabi Q4 GDP, Kuwait Q4 BoP.

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