GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ delays taper, UAE revises up 2023 fiscal surplus, Bahrain taxes multinationals, Adnoc and PIF issue bonds

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Sep 2024 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC+ delayed tapering, cutting Q4 output by 450k b/d, as oil dipped to the lowest in over a year.
* PMIs rebounded in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but Kuwait’s fell into contraction.
* The IMF’s Saudi Article IV revised up deficit forecasts and sees debt rising to 35% of GDP by 2029.
* PIF raised $2bn from a green sukuk and green bond tap.
* The UAE’s 2023 fiscal surplus was 7.6% of GDP, far above the preliminary result.
* UAE sovereign bonds were the best-performing amongst high-quality EMs in August.
* Adnoc raised $4bn in its debut bond issuance and three UAE banks issued $1.25bn.
* Adnoc is investing in Exxon’s proposed blue hydrogen plant in Texas.
* Qatar’s GDP was flat in Q4 as non-oil growth rose to 1.7% y/y but was offset by a blip in hydrocarbon output.
* QatarEnergy announced separate plans to double urea production and solar power.
* Kuwait dropped the disruptive ban on certain expat residents being shareholders.
* Moody’s lifted Oman’s indicative rating range above the assigned Ba1 rating, bolstering upgrade prospects.
* Bahrain announced the GCC’s first OECD 15% minimum tax for multinationals.
* Bahrain published quarterly fiscal data for the first time, as part of its NSDP rollout.
* A Gaza ceasefire remained elusive as Netanyahu stuck to border demands.
* Databank updates: UAE and Bahrain fiscal; Omani and Saudi forecasts; monthly PMIs, oil and tourism.

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