GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, Gaza ceasefire ends, Bahrain loses positive outlook, UAE launches $30bn climate fund

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 01 Dec 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The market was underwhelmed by extended OPEC+ cuts.
* Saudi production in Q1 will be flat, UAE will rise by 1% and Kuwait and Oman will fall by -5%.
* The Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza ended today after a week, with Israel poised to invade the south.
* Riyadh won hosting for the 2030 World Expo, beating Rome, with a clear majority of the vote.
* PIF raised a $3-5bn syndicated loan backed by Korean export credit agency K-SURE.
* PIF bought a 10% stake in Heathrow Airport for $1bn, joining Qatar as a shareholder.
* COP28 began with an agreement on loss and damages and a $30bn UAE-backed investment fund.
* S&P now expects Abu Dhabi to use surpluses to reduce debt to 13% of GDP by 2026.
* The Dubai Metro is getting a $5bn 30km extension to the southeast.
* Turkey expects the first tranche of 10-year earthquake recovery sukuk sales to ADQ this month.
* Qatar recorded a 6% of GDP fiscal surplus in Q3, but its non-oil GDP growth in Q2 slowed to just 0.1%.
* Kuwait’s Amir is in the hospital, reportedly stable; its prime minister survived a grilling in parliament.
* Kuwait’s parliament once more rejected a proposal for a tax on tobacco and sugary drinks.
* S&P lowered the outlook on Bahrain to stable as it raised its deficit forecast this year to -4.4% of GDP.
* Databank updates: Qatar fiscal and GDP, forecasts for Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait.

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