GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil demand forecasts, Saudi VAT revenue dips unexpectedly, Saudi worries about an Iranian attack

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 04 Nov 2022 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand growth forecasts by about 2m b/d to 110m in 2045.
* Gulf states largely mirrored the Fed rate hikes, as usual, bar Kuwait.
* The IMF reduced most fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts, expecting little procyclical spending.
* The Saudi Q3 fiscal surplus narrowed sharply on lower revenue from oil and (surprisingly) VAT.
* Saudi banking sector liquidity is getting tight, and interbank rates high, given strong credit growth.
* PIF plans a domestic EV firm (Ceer), and the UAE+US will invest $100bn in green energy globally.
* Saudi Arabia reportedly warned the US about a potential Iranian attack on the Kingdom, although the threat may have since eased. Biden and Raisi sparred in speeches about the protests.
* Saudi non-oil GDP grew by a healthy 5.6% y/y in the Q3 flash reading.
* PMIs rebounded in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Dubai visitor numbers were flat in September.
* The Bayanat IPO nearly quadrupled on its first day trading, the most of any stock globally this year.
* IPOs up next: an upsized Empower IPO, a dual Saudi-UAE listing for Americana… and maybe MBC.
* Moody’s put Qatar on a positive outlook given a sustained improvement in debt metrics.
* ConocoPhillips joined North Field South LNG, and a Qatari JV with Petrobras in Brazil struck oil.
* Kuwait’s parliament finally passed the 2022/23 budget, after boosting wage allocations.
* Pope Francis spoke out against discrimination and the death penalty on a visit to Bahrain.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal, Kuwait inflation, PMIs, IMF REO forecasts and Moody’s on Qatar.

Now read on...

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