GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil forecasts, IMF forecasts surpluses for most, Qatar-France LNG deal, Gulf diplomacy continues on Gaza war

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 13 Oct 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were heavily involved in diplomacy related to the Hamas-Israel war.
* OPEC hiked its baseline 2045 oil demand forecast to 116m b/d, above its previous bull scenario.
* The IMF forecasts fiscal surpluses in 2024-28 for all except Bahrain, although its fiscal breakeven is falling.
* The IMF forecasts Saudi oil output averaging 10m b/d in 2024, 5% below its OPEC+ allocation.
* IISS published an important analysis of Gulf bailout diplomacy.
* Fitch widened its forecast for the Saudi deficit to -3.3% of GDP in 2023.
* The UAE fiscal surplus held at around 5% of GDP in Q2 but spending growth rose to 10% y/y.
* ADIA’s annual review implies a -16% loss in 2022 and confirmed its growing focus on private equity.
* QatarEnergy signed a 27-year 3.5m t/yr LNG contract with Total for delivery to France.
* QatarEnergy and Chevron Phillips reached financial close on the Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Project.
* Kuwait is targeting 4m b/d of oil capacity by 2040.
* OG Gas Networks made history as Oman’s largest IPO, raising $749m on $10bn in orders.
* Bahrain issued a $530m-equivalent local development bond.
* Databank updates: IMF forecasts, UAE Q2 fiscal, Bahrain tourism, oil production

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