GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Jan 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers.
* OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn.
* Following the signing of its Cepa with the UAE, Malaysia indicated plans to negotiate a GCC FTA.
* New IMF forecasts for Saudi GDP are in line with OPEC+’s oil plan in 2025 but weaker in 2026.
* Maaden announced new mining finds, a lithium JV with Aramco and plans for a bond issuance.
* ADQ is offering $0.9bn and a 30% price premium to fully acquire Dubai courier Aramex.
* Masdar and EWEC announced the world’s largest solar+battery plant, with 5.2GW and 19GWh.
* Abu Dhabi entities (ADIA, Masdar, Taqa, ENEC) are also planning more international power deals.
* Kuwait confirmed a sin tax on tobacco and sugar drinks that will raise 0.5% of GDP in revenue.
* Kuwait has now stripped citizenship from 2% of the population, mainly naturalized foreign wives.
* Oman’s Sultan made a royal grant of 0.4% of GDP for social benefits and to pay off housing loans.
* Bahrain’s parliament approved a proposal to boost social spending by about 1.4% of GDP.
* The merger between Bahrain’s Alba and Saudi Arabia’s Maaden aluminum unit was canceled.
* Qatar successfully mediated a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal to begin on Sunday.
* Lebanon appointed the ICJ president Nawaf Salam as prime minister over Hezbollah's objections.
* The four Gulf states that withdrew ambassadors from Lebanon in 2021 are preparing to restore ties.
* Saudi Arabia hosted an international meeting on Syria, and Qatar’s PM visited Damascus.
* Databank updates: Inflation for KSA, Oman & Dubai; Oil production; Saudi forecast.

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