GULF WEEKLY: S&P positive on Saudi, OPEC+ tapers slowly, Q4 GDP for Qatar and Bahrain

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 01 Apr 2022 by Justin Alexander

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* OPEC+ stuck with its standard taper and didn’t apply the new baselines for Gulf states. Meanwhile, the US announced a record strategic oil reserve release.
* Ukraine’s president addressed the Doha Forum, and Mubadala will pause investment in Russia.
* The IRGC’s terrorist designation seems to be the final sticking point on an Iran nuclear deal.
* S&P raised Saudi Arabia’s outlook to positive and sees fiscal surpluses in 2022-23. Moody’s forecasts even larger surpluses on higher oil assumptions.
* Saudi Arabia saw a strong rebound in expat jobs but also a decline in Saudi unemployment in Q4.
* A Turkish prosecutor proposed transferring the Khashoggi case to KSA, which could restore relations.
* Saudi Arabia lent $5bn to Egypt and pledged $10bn investments, while Qatar pledged to invest $5bn.
* There seems to be tentative progress in Yemen towards at least a temporary ceasefire.
* Sharjah sold its delayed $750m 8-year sukuk at +135bp.
* Dubai daily tourist arrivals rose by 37% m/m in February to a post-Covid high.
* DEWA has sharply upsized its IPO offering to $5.7bn.
* Q4 GDP growth was 2.0% y/y in Qatar and 4.3% in Bahrain.
* The IMF published its Kuwait Article IV report and sees a fiscal breakeven this year with oil at $82.
* Oman plans to repay $7.4bn in loans this month, drawing on the oil windfall.
* The political mess in Tunisia and Iraq intensified, but Lebanon edged towards an IMF agreement.
* GCC Databank updates: Qatar, Bahrain and Oman GDP, Qatar and KSA BoP, Kuwait Art4, S&P Saudi forecasts.

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