GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP revised up by 14%, $7.4bn in debt issued across GCC, Eric Trump launches GCC deals, Oman discusses US FTA

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 02 May 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil traded lower in advance of an OPEC+ meeting tomorrow that could accelerate the taper.
* Despite positive noises after a 3rd US-Iran meeting in Oman, Trump threatened secondary sanctions.
* The IMF’s REO forecasts see fiscal breakeven oil prices ranging from $45 (Qatar) to $137 (Bahrain).
* The Trump Organization announced projects in Qatar and Dubai; MGX is using Trump’s stablecoin.
* The flash Q1 Saudi GDP saw private growth slow to 4.2%, but government growth rise to 3.2%.
* Past Saudi GDP was substantially revised back to 2011, including boosting 2024 nominal GDP by 14%.
* The Saudi White Land Tax was quadrupled to motivate projects to address the housing shortage.
* A progress report on Vision 2030 reports that 80% of interim KPIs have been achieved.
* $4.25bn in sukuk were sold by PIF, Adnoc and DP World; Banque Saudi Fransi sold a $650m AT1.
* IMF emirate-level GDP growth forecasts see Abu Dhabi averaging 5.1% in 2025-26 and Dubai 3.3%.
* Qatar is in talks for a major LNG supply contract with Japanese firms.
* A report commissioned by Qatar estimates that its UK investments provide 0.6% of UK GDP.
* Kuwait is investing 25% in a Chinese petchem firm and is also considering Louisiana LNG.
* The Oman-US FTA Committee met for the first time in a decade, responding to Trump’s tariffs.
* Oman advanced LNG and solar plants and launched a new hydrogen concession auction.
* Bahrain issued $2.5bn across a 10-year sukuk and a 12-year bond.
* There were sectarian clashes involving the Druze minority in southern Syria, plus Israeli bombing.
* Databank updates: Saudi GDP and FDI, IMF REO forecasts, inflation for Bahrain and Abu Dhabi.

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