GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Iran ties restored, Qatar and Abu Dhabi reshuffle officials, Saudi Q4 GDP & fiscal data

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 10 Mar 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in China to restore diplomatic relations after a 7 years hiatus.
* Saudi GDP grew by 5.5% in Q4 and 8.7% in 2022 as a whole, close to the flash estimates.
* Transport, finance and business services lead the non-oil growth, but refining contracted in Q4.
* The Saudi fiscal surplus of 2.5% of GDP in 2022 was close to the preliminary estimate but both revenue and spending in Q4 were both markedly higher.
* The Saudi PMI hit a near 8-year high of 59.8 in Feb and manufacturing rose 19% y/y in Jan.
* KSA depositing $5bn in Turkey, as pledged in Nov, a quarter of the TCMB’s FX reserves.
* Dubai’s tourism and property market started 2023 strong but its PMI eased slightly in Feb.
* Brothers of MBZ became chairs of ADIA and Mubadala and his sons joined their boards.
* Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and president Zelenskyy’s wife visited the UAE.
* Qatar’s PMI rebounded to 51.9, returning to expansion after four months of contraction.
* Qatar’s foreign minister was promoted to PM and was replaced as QIA chair by the QCB governor.
* Qatar Airways is boosting flights by a fifth as travel recovers post-Covid.
* Kuwait’s prime minister Sheikh Ahmad was reappointed and will now form a new cabinet.
* Nogaholding’s chair mooted that Bahrain could free up gas for export by switching to solar power.
* Databank update: Saudi Q4 GDP and fiscal, PMIs, Dubai tourism.

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