GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q1 deficit, UAE trade talks with New Zealand, Israel assaults Rafah and bans Al Jazeera
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* OPEC+ for the first time published a compensation plan for countries exceeding their quotas.
* Israel began its Rafah assault, despite US opposition, after rejecting a Hamas ceasefire proposal.
* Israel banned Qatari news agency Al Jazeera, which it accuses of being a “Hamas mouthpiece”.
* Saudi Arabia’s deficit narrowed to -1.2% of GDP in Q1, with spending up 7.7% y/y.
* Saudi Arabia’s PMI held at a strong 57, Qatar’s rose to 52 but Kuwait’s dipped to 51.5.
* The UAE and New Zealand are negotiating a CEPA despite parallel FTA talks with the GCC.
* A new high-level Dubai Council was formed to formulate its development agenda.
* Etihad’s profits surged in Q1 as passenger numbers grew by 41%, ahead of a mooted IPO.
* A BCG survey placed Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the top 5 global destinations that workers aspire to.
* S&P extended its Qatar forecasts to 2027, when it sees a 9% of GDP surplus and debt falling to 31% of GDP.
* The concluding statement of the IMF’s Article IV mission to Kuwait warned about delayed reforms.
* Kuwait’s Amir visited Turkey on the 7th stop of his regional tour this year.
* Oman’s hotel revenue grew by 8% in Q1, driven by a strong rebound in European and Asian tourists.
* Bahrain had another weak month of oil production in February due to Abu Safah maintenance.
* Fitch put Egypt on a positive outlook due to external financing from the UAE and others.
* Databank updates: Saudi Q1 fiscal, Qatar forecasts, PMIs, Dubai tourism, Bahrain oil.
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