GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Q3 revenue better than reported, Saudi FDI revised up, Dubai budgets strong surpluses, Qatar signs China LNG deal
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Brent crude dropped below $80 for the first time since July on demand concerns.
* The conflict in north Gaza intensified, and Qatar hosted the Mossad and CIA chiefs for hostage mediation.
* Saudi Arabia is hosting emergency Arab and Islamic summits to respond to the war.
* Aramco paid $13bn more to the government than it reported in Q3 oil revenue, likely a timing difference.
* Saudi inward FDI was revised higher to average 2.3% of GDP in 2015-22, from 0.9% before.
* Dubai’s PMI rose to a four-year high, and tourist numbers were up 23% y/y in the first nine months.
* Dubai is budgeting a surplus of 3.3% of GDP in 2024-26, with strong growth in both revenue and expenditure.
* The UAE T-Sukuk auction achieved yields of 4.85% for 3 years and 5.22% for two years.
* Qatar’s PMI dropped sharply to 50.8, the lowest this year, but the population hit a new record of 3.1m.
* Qatar signed a second LNG supply deal with Sinopec, for a further 3m t/y.
* Kuwait is preparing a new corporate income tax law to comply with the BEPS global minimum tax.
* Kuwait MPs have threatened to grill the prime minister and justice minister.
* Oman’s underlying non-hydrocarbon expenditure was down by -5% y/y in the first nine months.
* There were reports that China is seeking to develop a military base in Oman.
* Jordan reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF for a $1.2bn 4-year facility.
* Databank updates: Dubai budget, PMIs and tourism, forecasts for Qatar and Bahrain.
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