GULF WEEKLY: Saudi slows oil expansion, IMF reveals stronger Oman surpluses, Kuwait budgets a big deficit, US soldiers killed in Jordan
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Brent crude eased back to $79, and OPEC+ delayed making a decision on Q2 output.
* An Iraqi militia drone killed 3 US soldiers, the first during the Gaza war, with retaliation expected.
* Qatar participated in Gaza ceasefire talks in Paris as Israel advances towards Rafah.
* The US paused approvals for new LNG terminals, which would be good for competitors in the GCC.
* Saudi Arabia halted its oil capacity expansion plan; this is mainly symbolic and probably temporary.
* Saudi GDP declined by -3.7% in Q4 and -0.9% for 2023 as a whole (-9.5% oil, +3.9% non-oil).
* Saudi FDI data was revised substantially; recent inflows remain weak at 1.2% of GDP in 2021-23.
* Abu Dhabi saw no overall inflation in 2023, having been the highest in the GCC in 2022 at 6%.
* Moody’s sees Sharjah’s debt rising to 65% in 2027, 10pp above the government target.
* Moody’s Qatar credit opinion shows that reduced banking external liabilities supported the upgrade.
* Kuwait’s draft budget cuts spending by -7% but implies about a -6% of GDP deficit with oil at $80.
* The IMF’s Oman report reveals public finances are even better than reported, due to transfers.
* Oman appointed a chair for its Tax Authority, which could help improve inefficient VAT collection.
* Bahrain’s upper chamber of parliament rejected the remittance tax law, as expected.
* The IMF completed a mission to Egypt and says it is close to expanding its loan agreement.
* Databank updates: Kuwait budget, Saudi Q4 GDP, Dubai Q3 GDP, Saudi FDI, Abu Dhabi inflation, Qatar forecasts.
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