GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 31 Jan 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2.
* Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050.
* The Saudi Q4 flash GDP reading was strong, including 4.6% for non-oil private sector activities.
* Foreigners will be permitted to own shares in real estate firms and REITs active in Makkah.
* Etihad Rail announced plans for high-speed trains linking Dubai and Abu Dhabi in 30 mins.
* Lunate bought another 6% of Adnoc gas pipelines, effectively reversing the 2020 privatization.
* ADQ made a $2.3bn investment in Greek hospitals and set up a $1.2bn mining fund JV.
* There is growing talk of the long-awaited debt and mortgage laws finally passing in Kuwait soon.
* Oman’s parliament proposed raising the threshold and lowering the rate of personal income tax.
* Bahrain omitted key tables from its central bank bulletin, which might imply weak FX reserves.
* A new law should at least double the revenue transfers to Bahrain’s Future Generations Reserve.
* Bahraini MPs backed a remittance tax proposal but opposed the privatization of Gulf Air.
* Egypt issued its first dollar bond in two years and also raised a syndicated loan for a total of $4bn.
* The Gaza ceasefire held; Trump controversially proposed relocating Gazans to Egypt and Jordan.
* The Lebanon ceasefire was extended for three weeks, as Israeli forces killed 22 returning south.
* Ahmed al-Sharaa declared himself transitional president and was visited by Qatar’s Emir.
* Databank updates: Saudi GDP, Bahrain and UAE inflation.

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