GULF WEEKLY: Trump tours GCC, PIF launches AI champion, oil eases on talk of an Iran deal, Mumtalakat achieves record profit

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 May 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil prices eased back to $64 after Trump said on Thursday that an Iran deal might be close.
* April data showed only a small rise in OPEC+ V8 output and continued Kazakh overproduction.
* The White House counted $1trn in deals signed during Trump’s visit to the GCC.
* Despite much exaggeration, there was real progress on US exports of planes, arms and AI chips.
* There were also several investments in the US announced, including in aluminum and refining.
* PIF launched a Saudi AI champion, Humain, and signed MoUs with major US tech firms.
* There were strong subscriptions for the IPOs of Flynas and Dubai Residential REIT.
* Moody's upgraded Emirates NBD's deposit rating to A1 on profitability and improved asset quality.
* Fitch widened RAK's deficit forecasts, but sees these as only transitory as the Wynn Resort is built.
* The UAE aims to substantially expand the size of its Islamic banks and sukuk market.
* The UAE announced investments in logistics and energy in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
* Mumtalakat rebounded to a $1bn profit in 2024, from a -$1.3bn, but the drivers are unclear.
* Trump met Syria’s president in Riyadh and announced an unexpected plan to lift US sanctions.
* Qatar facilitated the release of the last US hostage from Gaza and mediated more ceasefire talks.
* However, Israel heavily bombed northern Gaza and is preparing a major ground offensive.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal; Qatar and Saudi inflation; OPEC production; Saudi manufacturing.

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