​GULF WEEKLY: US open to EU-Iran mediation, Sharjah nears junk status, Kuwait suspends parliament

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 19 Feb 2021 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include:

* The US welcomed an EU proposal to mediate with Iran. This comes days before Iran is planning to limit nuclear inspections and after an attack on a US base in Iraq by an Iran-linked militia.
* Oil hit $65 and could climb higher given strong backwardation. The market does not appear to be anticipating an imminent surge in Iranian exports.
* The US removed the Houthi terrorism designation even as the Houthis have stepped up their assault in Marib and their drone strikes into Saudi Arabia.
* Coronavirus case levels seem to be flattening but vaccinations remain slow in much of the Gulf.
* S&P estimates imply that the expat population in the Gulf fell by about -6% in 2020 and will remain flat in 2021-3.
* Saudi Arabia threatened to only award contracts to companies that relocated regional HQs to the Kingdom (largely away from Dubai).
* Unlike Trump, Biden won’t speak with MBS, but the US defense secretary did call him.
* Moody’s followed S&P in downgrading Sharjah to Baa3, and also put it on negative outlook.
* Kuwait’s Amir suspended parliament for a month, which might provide space for a debt law.
* The IMF completed staff visits to Oman and Bahrain.
* OQ is selling a $326m stake in a refinery to its Indian JV partner. Oman Air has cut capex plans.
* The IMF published an Article IV report for Iraq but progress on new loans seems to be stalled.

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