GULF WEEKLY: US sanctions underwhelm, MBS visits France, Bahrain posts weak Q1 GDP
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* There were doubts about the effectiveness of new US sanctions on Iran and threats from Iran.
* The shift to sanctions and the return of diplomats to US embassies eased the risk of strikes.
* Two tankers were hit in Hormuz, amid confusion about transit volumes and Trump’s demining claim.
* Qatar’s prime minister visited Iran for the first time during the war, as did Oman’s foreign minister.
* Saudi reinsurers are looking at developing a war-risk insurance pool, backed by the finance ministry.
* There was an overhaul of Saudi derivative market rules and fees, to boost liquidity.
* Saudi mortgage refinancer SRC raised $2.75bn in a dual-tranche sukuk with 6.8x oversubscription.
* MBS visited France, and agreements were announced, including a regional HQ for BNP Paribas.
* Dubai’s air passenger numbers fell by -42% y/y in Q2 but have largely rebounded in recent weeks.
* Qatar’s public deposits declined by -$10bn in July, unwinding most of the post-war support to banks.
* Qatar’s LNG exports were down by -89% over the last six months, with most deliveries within the GCC.
* Kuwait’s central bank is considering unwinding the bank relief measures it announced in March.
* Kuwait has issued a tender for a $3bn processing plant for the contested Doura field gas project.
* Oman was close to a fiscal balance in H1, with revenue up 13% and expenditure up 9%.
* Inflation picked up in July to 3.2% in Oman and 3.0% in Bahrain, led by food and transport.
* Bahrain’s GDP contracted by -3.8% in Q1, with oil down -37%, transport -15% and hospitality -13%.
* Databank updates: Oman fiscal, Bahrain GDP, Oman and Bahrain inflation, Oman tourism.
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