Headline Drops Further on Food, Lira

TURKEY - Report 03 Jul 2017 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices dropped by 0.27% in June, m/m, which compared favorably to consensus expectation of some 0.1% increase (June 2016: 0.5%). The 12-month rate hence declined more than expected to 10.9% from 11.7% in May. Producer prices also eased to 14.9%, y/y, from 15.3% in May, but remains rather elevated. The decline in headline inflation was mainly driven by softer food and transportation prices, which shaved off some 0.2 and 0.1 pps from overall monthly CPI inflation, respectively, compared with last year’s positive contributions of 0.3 and 0.1 pp, respectively. The 12-month food inflation (including beverages) dropped sharply to 14.3% in June (from 16.9% in May), while non-food inflation, by our estimates, also eased, albeit more modestly, to 10.2% from 10.4% in May.

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