Headline likely peaked, but…

TURKEY - Report 03 Nov 2022 by Murat Ucer

Consumer price inflation came in at 3.5%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus of around 3.6%, and slightly above ours, the latter stemming largely from a somewhat higher food inflation forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless increased further -- for the 17th consecutive month -- to 85.5%, from 83.5% in September. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was high at 7.8%, m/m, with the 12-month rate increasing sharply to 157.7%, from 151.5% in September, driven by a surge in energy prices, which rose by over 400%. The PPI-CPI inflation gap increased further as a result, to 72.2 percentage points (pps) from 68 pps a month ago, suggesting that cost-push pressures remain elevated (Graph 1; Table 1).

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