​HEADS UP: Erdogan promises military campaign East of Euphrates

TURKEY - In Brief 12 Dec 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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Erdogan and other senior members of his administration including Defense Minister retired Gen Hulusi Akar openly stated that Turkey will launch a military campaign in North-East Syria (East of Euphrates) to shut down “the terror corridor”.The target area is controlled by a pro-PKK Kurdish entity called PYD-YPG, which happens to be a stalwart ally of US and has GI Joes embedded within its brigades. I still don’t think a land incursion is likely, given the costs I shall list below, but with municipal elections approaching, AKP slipping in the polls and Erdogan’s record of pre-announcing two previous military campaigns in North-West Syria, I felt it urgent to issue this heads-up. PYD-YPG has been in control of North-East Syria for several years, and to the extent I can check from reliable sources, its militia is not harassing Turkish towns or military outposts. Neither have the Kurds made a move towards declaring autonomy, the ultimate red line for Turkey. So, what might have infuriated the administration so much that a military campaign has been put on the table? Obviously, to appease nationalist MHP and to reinforce the loyalty of Islamist constituency which is wavering in its backing of AKP in the face of a deepening economic contraction is the first reason which comes to mind.However, up to 45% of Turkey’s Kurds vote for AKP, which may protest the party, as a land invasion leading to casualties is very likely to swing HDP votes in large cities towards CHP, potentially causing mayoral losses. It appears Pentagon setting up 5 observation posts close to the Turkish border is the first development which broke the fragile equilibrium. White House claims these will serve to...