​Heads Up: Erdogan’s high wire act

TURKEY - In Brief 19 Oct 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’m afraid odds of Turkey heading for one or for a series of polls have increased substantially over the last couple of days. While I’ll defer my discussion of the latter subjects to the weekly, risks in Syria and those stemming from Ankara’s insistence to insert Turkey into the Mosul rescue operation and its aftermath are also quite significant. Instead of being humbled by the experience of the coup, Erdogan has brought Turkey to the prelude of yet another high-wire act with very uncertain consequences. I want to warn my audience that political risks are very likely to increase visibly in the coming days. On Monday PM Yildirim met MHP leader Bahceli, after which meeting he heralded that a constitutional reform bill containing an executive presidency article will be submitted to the Grand Assembly “asap”. Today, I learn the time frame could be as short as 15 days. On Tuesday, Bahceli told his parliamentary caucus that while he prefers a strengthened parliamentary system, he trusts the judgment of the people and there is no harm in deferring the choice of the governance system to the nation. While he still leaves himself some room to escape, I have no other way but to read this statement as qualified support for a potential referendum proposal on an executive presidency article. Of course MHP support is conditional on the structure of the executive presidency, where the party’s desire for some checks and balances will have to be reconciled with Erdogan’s desire to have as much power as possible. This is where negotiations could still break down, but then AKP will still retain the option of calling elections to put this long simmering matter to rest. Hence the odds of a ...