HEADS UP: Military action started in Idlib

TURKEY - In Brief 20 Feb 2020 by Atilla Yesilada
This is not a Market Brief, because news broke only an hour ago, leaving me no time for analysis. However, TL denominated assets are spooked, therefore I owe our audience a brief HEADS UP. As Turkish press reports “Anti-Assad Rebels supported by elements of Turkish Armed Forced staged a counterattack against Syrian National Army in Idlib”. Already, a township South of key city Sarakeb, Neyrab, may have fallen to rebels. Anatolian Agency reports large Turkish troop and heavy armor movements in the vicinity. I believe Erdogan delivered on his wow of pushing back Assad and the roughly three Turkish armored brigades and special forces will join the action to push back Syrian National Army to the Sochi Agreement borders no matter what it takes. I expect Russia to stay neutral, but not allow Turkish air force to use the Syrian air space and Assad’s army to fight back viciously. I shall monitor the developments all night (but shall not be present at my desk, because TV is faster than Internet in terms of news dissemination) and write an analysis piece as early as possible tomorrow.

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