Headwinds facing President Ramaphosa and his political strategy

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Apr 2019 by Iraj Abedian

Dr. Iraj Abedian in collaboration with Dr Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry ​

* The 2019 elections are likely to be the most decisive in the factional battles within the ANC, and they will give early indication of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s longevity in office;
* There are two scenarios we paint in this paper. They are diametrically opposed, yet both are possible: a surge of support for the ANC on the paper of Ramaphosa’s popularity will give impetus to the institutional and economic reform agenda. The opposite will scupper reforms, deflate investor confidence and push the country on a downward spiral;
* As president of his party – however fractured – and the country, Ramaphosa possesses formal legitimacy to take decision. One aspect that is under his firm control is what we refer to in this paper as law-fare, which is an ensemble of law enforcement agencies and those institutions responsible for upholding the rule of law;
* We note that even if the ANC dips in support, and there is a backlash from within opposite faction in the party, he still has relative bargaining power to drive institutional and economic reforms; and
* The verdict of the various commissions of inquiry that are under way will enhance his legitimacy in the public eye and enable him to intensify the reform path.

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