Homemade Demand

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Jun 2024 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

First quarter GDP grew 0.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly above the market's average projection (consensus 0.7%) but below our forecast (1.1%). On the supply side it was driven by the surprising expansion of the agricultural sector (11.3%) and, from a demand perspective, by robust growth of domestic demand (1.7%), thanks to household consumption (1.5%) and investment (4.1%).

There were modest revisions to past data (in terms of total GDP; for its components, the revisions were more significant). Considering first quarter observation and the revisions, the statistical carryover for 2024 stands at 1.0%, which would require an average quarterly expansion of 0.9% (3.5% annually) to reach our forecast of 2.3% growth for this year and 0.7% per quarter to reach the median of the FOCUS survey projections.

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