Horse race

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 24 Sep 2015 by Romeo Bernardo

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So far, there are three. In order of their announcements to join the presidential race, these are Vice President Jejomar Binay, former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Grace Poe. Latest polls show that the last one out of the gate, i.e., Senator Poe, leading by a nose and that for practical purposes, the three are in a "statistical tie". The close race worries many who fear the situation persisting through 2016, as the candidates come down the stretch. The common view is that the absence of a clear frontrunner will keep investors on the sidelines. The uncertainty stems less from policy discontinuity (all three have professed commitment to President Aquino's reforms) than from concerns that a narrow margin of victory will make the winning candidate vulnerable to charges of cheating. The latter is particularly worrisome given current low confidence in the integrity of the vote counting machines that government will procure from Venezuelan firm Smartmatic. There is also the citizenship issue hounding Senator Poe. While a disqualification case is now being heard in the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET), which is expected to come out with its decision in November, the question may have to be decided in the end by the Supreme Court (SC). SC members who also sit in the SET, while acknowledging that the Senator is Filipino, have apparently yet to be convinced that she is "natural born", a prerequisite for the job. Many are hoping for a quick resolution of the case, with clarity in the final lineup helping to coax the presently "undecided" to place their bets early. Presidential aspirants have until mid-October to officially file their certificates of candidacy.