Hotter politics, cooler economy

TURKEY - Report 09 Jun 2024 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The Turkish financial markets were rattled briefly mid-week, as the main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel threatened to launch a campaign for early elections. He later clarified his statements, essentially suggesting it is too early for that. Yet, his strategy of negotiating with Erdogan includes leveraging the threat of early elections, meaning that Turkey watchers must be alert to new shocks.

Erdogan and Ozel will meet on the 11th of June, to tackle a lengthy agenda, ranging from a new constitution to amnesty for political prisoners. Ozel also has a series of costly economic demands from Erdogan, such as another mid-year hike to minimum wages. The politics author expects no breakthrough or compromises, but the summit should signal that the hot topic of domestic politics, namely “normalization”, or the goal of more consensual policy making, will remain relevant to markets.

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