Hour Zero Approaches

ECUADOR - In Brief 11 May 2023 by Magdalena Barreiro

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The report recommending Guillermo Lasso should not be impeached was approved by four members of the review committee and rejected by five. According to the legal procedure, the plenary approved to start the impeachment process with 88 votes. The impeachment process could last two weeks or less, and 92 votes are necessary to put President Lasso out of office. Next Sunday there are elections within the Assembly to elect a new president and members of the different legislative commissions. Political activity is intense as the objective of the executive is to destroy the majority formed by UNES (47 votes), Social Christians (13 votes), dissidents from Packakutik (around 10), and dissidents from Izquierda Democratica (6). These votes are virtually secured for the impeachment, but do not complete the 92. On the other hand, to block the process, official legislators must convince 46 legislators. Thus, given the coming elections, political activity within the Assembly is intense as both sides are trying to secure the votes. The outcome of Sunday, is of great importance to assess Lasso’s destiny. There are three possible scenarios. Lasso is not impeached and continues a weak mandate with sporadic attacks from Conaie and permanent block from the Assembly.  Lasso is impeached and vice President Borrero (with no leadership at all) assumes the presidency following the constitutional mandate. There is no certainty the opposition would let Borrero finish his period. Finally, if after Sunday the executive assess the probability of an impeachment is high, President Lasso could still go for the cross-death process and govern for six months with a not-so-friendly Constitutional Court and...