Household Consumption Continues to Fall

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Mar 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

In November last year there was some optimism about possible recovery of real retail sales, but it soon became evident that the growth that month came from the Black Friday promotions, repeating the same behavior that had occurred in November 2014. However, the optimism was not easily abandoned, because even though the effects of Black Friday have not been captured in the seasonal adjustment algorithm due to its recent arrival in Brazil, the consumer confidence index estimated by FGV started to show signs of stabilizing. This optimism was strengthened by the contained contraction in December, but the sharp contraction in January confirmed the continuing downward trend.

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