Housing sector developments: a recap

TURKEY - Report 04 Jul 2021 by Murat Ucer

There is a well-established consensus among Turkey watchers that the Turkish economy went through a massive credit-fueled/construction-driven economic boom, which has accelerated --or become vividly patent-- after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In other words, Turkey is one of those countries that had a credit boom of the “bad” kind in the post-GFC period, as argued in a recent IMF study.

To be sure, the IMF research does not cite or flesh out any specific country experiences, aside from mentioning a few of the most notorious ones in passing, such as the US, Ireland and Spain, but one of its key findings – that “long-lasting credit booms that featured rapid construction growth never ended well” – seems not only to fit Turkey’s experience rather well, but carries some dire warnings regarding the shape of things to come. (See here for a short blog on the paper, which has link to the original research).

Now read on...

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