Houston, We Have a Problem

TURKEY - Report 04 Aug 2014 by Murat Ucer
Consumer price inflation in July surprised on the upside coming in at 0.45%, versus consensus expectation of a modest drop of 0.1%.This has pushed the 12-month rate slightly higher to 9.3%, from 9.2% in June. Producer price inflation eased somewhat to 9.5%, probably largely owing to a more stable lira. But core inflation (I-index) also edged up modestly, rising to 9.8% in July from 9.7% a month earlier (Table 1; Graph 1). The print is bad on several fronts. First, despite the expectations of a visible drop in the 12-month rate from the May peaks, such a drop has not yet materialized, which ...

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