Politics: How Best to Answer Donald Trump's threats
The two axes –economic integration and shared security— upon which in recent decades a complex and profound relationship of collaboration and trust between Mexico and the United States was built is about to be upended and potentially demolished by the aggressive measures president elect Donald Trump has threatened. He does not view Mexico as a partner but rather as a danger and a threat. His great border wall embodies that vision.
We will discuss the implications of trade renegotiation at another Weekly Trends, but when it comes to migration and security polices the Mexican government may not do much if anything to impede mass deportations of its citizens, but there are pressure points Mexico can use to its advantage.
One option is to cease to its collaboration with the U.S. in detaining each year roughly 180,000 Central American migrants crossing Mexican territory headed toward the US, including those with “restricted or special nationalities,” which is to say people from countries where Islamic terrorist organizations have a presence.
Another component of the bilateral relationship that Mexico can use as negotiating leverage is the issue of drug trafficking. Now that US support for the Merida Initiative has been slashed to a minimum, Mexico could maintain its policy of combatting organized crime without prioritizing the crop eradication, shipment confiscation or interdicting drugs before they cross the border and cancel the agreements under which agents from a range of US security agencies (DEA, FBI, CIA, ICE, ATF) are allowed to investigate criminal organizations inside Mexico that also have a presence north of the border
So far the Mexican government has proposed a cautious and patient approach while waiting for President-elect Trump to make his first decisions. The Ministry of Foreign Relations has limited its response to listing policies that have been in place for quite some time. So far the Mexican government has abstained from signaling any efforts to prepare a strategic and proactive response in defense not only of the interests of the country’s migrants, but also of the Mexican economy as a whole. That silence may prove very costly in the future.
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