Ideology and somnolence

COLOMBIA - Report 23 May 2018 by Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andrés Escobar Arango and Mauricio Santa Maria

Our forecast for the Sunday, May 27, first-round presidential election is that the most likely pair to advance to the second round is Duque-Petro, to which we assign a probability of 55%. The second most likely is Duque-Vargas (35% probability), and the third is Duque-Fajardo (10% probability).

This has been a boring presidential campaign. There have been so many topics that the public seems confused and motivated more by ideology and fear. There have been so many debates that people have grown weary and bored by them.

Now read on...

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